Wagner Group Russia: After Wagner’s mercenary coup appears to have shaken the Russian president’s position, emergency security measures remain in place in Moscow. Nevertheless, numerous inquiries remain unanswered concerning this matter.
What will Putin Do Now?
For nearly two decades, President Putin’s reign has persisted, but the occurrences within the past 36 hours have presented the utmost challenge to the authority of any Russian leader in the past two decades.
Although the situation that jeopardized Putin’s power seems to have subsided for now, analysts specializing in Russian affairs assert that the incident has taken a severe toll on Putin, leaving him in a weakened state, devoid of his usual strength.
President Putin’s distaste for the betrayal was demonstrated by his stern demeanour during a Sunday morning TV address where he accused Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin of ‘backstabbing’ and treason. Since this address, the President of Russia has not been seen in public and there are no plans for a new presidential address shortly.
During a previously recorded interview on state television, which aired on Sunday before the coup, Putin expressed his unwavering assurance regarding the advancement of the conflict in Ukraine. Presently, the whereabouts of President Putin in the Russian capital remain uncertain.
Speculation arises as to how Putin will react, contemplating potential scenarios such as further military engagements in Ukraine or a tightening of measures against dissenting individuals within Russia who have not shown allegiance to his leadership. Polish MEP Riddik Sikorski told the BBC that his government would now become ‘more authoritarian and more brutal’.
What is Prigozhin Going to Do in Belarus?
Yevgeny Prigozhin is free after the coup. Despite an attempt to topple Russia’s military leadership, charges of armed rebellion against him have been withdrawn. However, the intricate specifics of the agreement forged between the Kremlin and Wagner remain undisclosed to us.
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Russia analysts don’t think Prigozhin will disappear into the dead of night. The mercenary leader has been a very vocal figure for tens of thousands of fighters in the war in Ukraine. He has also been a key figure for President Putin, who has long worked in his shadow.
Their allegiance to the Kremlin has led them down a path of hostility, undertaking numerous malevolent actions from engaging in armed conflicts in Syria and Ukraine in 2014 to supporting Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
What Sparked Wagner’s Revolt? A Deep Dive into the Crisis
But after challenging President Putin’s authority, questions are being raised about what guarantees he may have given for his security, and his role going forward has yet to be answered. There is speculation surrounding the extent of control Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko can exert over Prigozhin once he arrives in Minsk.
Additionally, concerns arise regarding the potential risks to Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine if Wagner’s forces choose to accompany him.
What will Happen to Wagner Group Now?
Before this surprise armed coup, tens of thousands of Wagner mercenaries were playing a key role in President Putin’s war against Ukraine. Prigozhin and his forces have been resisting pressure to include him in the Russian Defense Ministry, and distaste for him is seen as a key factor in turning a long-running conflict into a coup.
But with the end of this short-lived insurgency, Prigozhin is now apparently headed for exile, and many are asking what their fighters will do next. The charges against the individuals implicated in the coup have been dismissed.
Captured in viral videos shared across various social media platforms, the forces under Wagner’s command are observed departing from the urban centre of Rostov-on-Don, relinquishing their temporary occupation of military installations. The governor of Voronezh, halfway between Rostov and Moscow, has said that Wagner’s forces are withdrawing from his territory as well.
However, it needs to be clarified whether they will now cooperate and integrate into the regular Russian army or whether regular Russian soldiers will now willingly serve with them. And will they return to fight in Ukraine’s current conflict zones, as Russian state media claim?
Some analysts fear that if Prigozhin goes to Belarus, his troops will follow him to the west, the closest point of attack to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.
How will this impact the ongoing conflict in Ukraine?
The Wagner group is among the most successful assault troops fighting in Ukraine. A multitude of its combatants, once confined within prison walls, have been set free and granted the prospect of liberation in return for their commitment to the forefront of battle.
For example, the group was at the forefront of capturing the Russian city of Bakhmut. Russia claims that its Ukraine campaign has so far been unaffected by the coup. But the Russian forces will no doubt have heard what is happening in their country and the news may be disappointing for them.
Some believe that there could be a fight between the rival units in the coming days, depending on the aftershocks of Saturday’s events in Russia. As for Ukraine, they are concerned, in addition to these threats, that Russia may escalate the attack and increase its troops. In addition, Ukraine’s military leaders are also looking for opportunities arising from cross-border instability.
Qiu’s troops have initiated a retaliatory campaign aiming to reclaim the territory currently under Russian control, viewing the ongoing turmoil in Russia as a favourable circumstance. Bill Taylor, the ex-diplomat of the United States assigned to Ukraine, conveyed his belief that the Ukrainian military holds advantageous ground to capitalize on the strategic vulnerabilities revealed by the unexpected deployment of Wagner fighters.
What did America and others already know?
American media say that the intelligence agencies of the United States had already started receiving indications that such an operation was about to take place, and earlier this week, President Joe Biden was briefed along with key leaders of Congress.
As per an exclusive report by CNN, intelligence gathered by American authorities reveals that the head of the mercenary organization has been actively amassing weaponry, ammunition, and assorted provisions near the Russian border.
Meanwhile, as disclosed by the New York Times, President Biden engaged in discussions with the respective leaders of France, Germany, and Britain, driven by apprehensions regarding the potential loss of Mr. Putin’s dominion over Russia’s extensive cache of nuclear armaments amidst the prevailing tumult.
The newspaper said that the heads of US intelligence agencies had been monitoring the deteriorating relationship between Prigozhin and Russian defence officials for months and that intelligence had concluded that it was a sign that both Wagner and the regular military were at war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post says the US may have learned Prigozhin was planning to do something in mid-June. A key trigger was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry decree ordering all volunteer units, such as the Wagner group, to sign contracts with the government that meant Prigozhin’s mercenaries would be taken over.
According to officials, the newspaper was informed that there existed sufficient indicators for the leadership to anticipate an imminent event. But the true nature of Prigozhin’s plans was not apparent until shortly before the coup began. The newspaper says that President Putin was also told by his intelligence that Prigozhin was plotting. On Saturday, the newspaper cited a US official who expressed uncertainty regarding the time of notification, emphasizing that it occurred “beyond a mere day ago.”
What do the Russian people think?
The nation perceives Mr. Putin’s crisis-related speech as an indication of his profound concern towards the threat, emphasizing his desire to demonstrate his dedication to the Russian populace.
Tatyana Stano Vaya, a leading Russia analyst, wrote on Telegram: ‘Many within the elite will personally blame Putin for the way things went and any timely response from the president did not come. So, this whole story is a blow to Putin’s position as well.’ While it is difficult to draw any conclusions about overall Russian public opinion, the sight of spectators in the city of Rostov praising the Wagner units may have worried the country’s leaders.
As Wagner’s troops left town, they were greeted by a supportive crowd, cheering, clapping, and taking pictures. It should be noted that earlier they had effectively taken control of the city during their rebellion. However, it is also worth noting that on the Saturday following Wagner’s arrival, some residents arrived at the station to leave the city.