Rebels Claim Victory in Hama

Syrian rebels say they have taken control of the country’s second largest city after the country’s army withdrew troops from the city of Hama.

Syrian rebels say they have taken control of the country’s second largest city after the government withdrew troops from the city of Hama, in what is being described as another setback for President Bashar al-Assad.

Abu Muhammad al-Julani, leader of the militant organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared a “victory” in Hama, reiterating that “revenge will not be taken.”

Earlier, HTS fighters and their allies captured Hama’s central prison after fierce clashes and released several prisoners, while the army announced that it had deployed its troops outside the city.

Hama is home to one million people and is located 110 kilometers south of Aleppo, which was captured last week after a surprise attack by rebels.

“Your time has come,” the rebel commander told residents of Homs, the next city south of Aleppo.

In the past, President Assad has relied on Russia and Iran to crush his rivals. But with both allies themselves embroiled in new conflicts in the region, it is unclear how they will be able to stop the rebel advance that has now become a direct threat to the survival of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Although the war in Syria continued after 13 years of fighting, it remained out of the headlines until the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham made a surprise advance on Aleppo last week, capturing large areas in a matter of hours.

It should be remembered that a peaceful uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad turned into a full-scale civil war in 2011. The conflict killed nearly half a million people, while the intervention of Russia and the United States turned it into a ‘proxy war’.

Today, Syria is divided into four distinct parts, either ruled by Bashar al-Assad or by self-proclaimed armed groups with different ideologies and loyalties.

Who controls which parts of Syria has changed significantly since the start of the war.

After initially losing vast territory to rebels, President Bashar al-Assad’s government was able to secure Russian support since 2015 and regain control of about two-thirds of the country before the latest rebel advance on Aleppo.

In the north, where Syria borders Turkey, several borders have been drawn by self-proclaimed authorities or armed groups supported by other countries.

“From the east of the capital Damascus to the Euphrates River, Iranian influence is still present,” says Serhat Erkaman, an analyst working for a private security firm.

According to them, the Mediterranean coast and the area from there to Damascus and the southern lands are under Russian influence.

It should be remembered that Iran and Russia are considered the strongest supporters of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

But recent developments in the region have changed all that. Iran and Hezbollah are embroiled in a conflict with Israel, while Russia is focused on the war with Ukraine.

Although all of these actors still declare their support for the Bashar al-Assad regime, analysts say their support on the ground has waned during the latest tensions.

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Syrian rebels take Hama, a second major city, in another blow to Assad

Aleppo and its surrounding areas, and now the city of Hama, are also under the control of the sect’s Islamist political and armed organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Latakia, Syria’s main port on the Mediterranean Sea, is under the control of Bashar al-Assad and has played a key role since the start of the civil war.

“It was called the Nusra Front and many people will be familiar with that name. It was the branch of al-Qaeda in Syria.”

Who Controls Idlib?

Just 120 kilometers from Syria’s northern border is Idlib province, which has been held by several rival opposition factions since government forces lost control in 2015 and is currently largely under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

“It was called the Nusra Front and many people will be familiar with that name. It was the branch of al-Qaeda in Syria,” says Mina al-Alami, media specialist at BBC Monitoring.

In 2016, the Nusra Front announced it was breaking ties with al-Qaeda because local rebel groups were refusing to work with them because of the al-Qaeda name.

“Everyone was afraid of Al-Qaeda’s reputation. So the group declared its independence,” says Mina al-Lami.

Although the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham claims to be independent and not affiliated with any external organization or have any global jihadist ambitions, the United Nations, the United States, and Turkey consider it to be an al-Qaeda affiliate and list it as a terrorist organization.

Syrian journalist Sarkis Kasargian says that there are many fundamentalist groups in the region that support the Hiyat-e-Tahrir, such as the Turkestan Islamic Party, a Chinese Uyghur-dominated jihadist group.

After driving most Turkish-backed militants out of Idlib, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has established an administrative authority in the area.

“It has ministries, it includes ministers who are very active on social media, inaugurating new projects, focusing on reconstruction, and attending graduation events,” says Mina Al-Alami.

“So they’re really trying to present themselves as a small state, a small state within a state and they’re trying to get the approval of the international community.”

In 2017, Turkey, which opposes the Syrian government, and Syria’s allies Russia and Iran reached an agreement in talks in the Kazakh capital Astana to establish a de-escalation zone, including Idlib, aimed at stopping the fighting.

The following year, Russia and Turkey agreed to create a demilitarized zone in Idlib province to separate government forces from rebel fighters based there.

Who is Controlling Afrin?

Afrin, a Kurdish-held enclave in northwest Syria, is now under the control of Turkish-backed anti-Assad groups.

In 2018, Turkey launched a large-scale offensive against Kurdish forces on the other side of the border following the US decision to create a border security force made up of Kurdish YPG fighters.

Turkey views the attacks as a threat to national security and an offshoot of the PKK, a militant group that has been waging war in Turkey’s southeast for three decades.

Since then, Turkey and its Syrian allies have controlled the Afrin region.

Two hundred recruits from the Samarkand Brigade, part of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, are undergoing graduation training.

Turkey united the militant groups it called the Syrian National Army (SNA) in 2017. They were previously called the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

The Syrian National Army is made up of groups that are directly affiliated with the Turkish military or intelligence, such as the Sultan Murad Division and other groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar.

“As far as we know, these groups do not work together with jihadist groups,” says Mina al-Alami from BBC Monitoring.

“However, this is certainly in line with Turkey’s own agenda, priorities and ambitions in the region. So they are strongly opposed to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and of course the Syrian government forces.”

With the support of Turkey, the Syrian National Army today controls areas west of the Euphrates River from Afrin to Jarablus and east to Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad.

On November 30, they launched an operation against Kurdish forces north of Aleppo and advanced to take control of the town of Tal Rifaat, including other areas previously held by the Kurds.

The Syrian National Army is actually part of the administrative authority called the Syrian Transitional Government, while the Turkish government and military also play an important role in the region.

Who Controls Manbij?

Another prominent group in the north is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

This coalition of Kurds, Arab militias and rebel groups controls areas from the east of the Euphrates River to the Iraqi border and the city of Manbij in the west.

The Syrian Democratic Forces unilaterally declared an entity called the Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria in 2018, which controls a quarter of Syria and hosts military bases for both the United States and Russia.

The Syrian Democratic Forces are seen as an ally of the US-led coalition against the IS group and their forces conduct joint military exercises. The Syrian Democratic Forces are seen as a US-led ally against the militant group Islamic State, and their forces conduct joint military exercises.

According to security analyst Serhat Erkin, “The SDF is using both channels, through Washington and Moscow, to establish its international legitimacy, separate from other opposition groups.”

“On the one hand, they are negotiating with the Syrian government to determine their future status in the country, while on the other hand, they are maintaining close political, economic and military coordination with the United States, which the Syrian government strongly opposes.”

The presence of the Syrian Democratic Forces on the Turkish border is a concern for Ankara, and many analysts say one of the goals of the recent rebel advance towards Aleppo is to force the Bashar al-Assad regime to negotiate a deal with Turkish President Erdogan regarding a safe zone in the north.

Has the Threat of the So-Called Islamic State been Averted?

The militant organization so-called Islamic State (IS), also known as ISIS, declared its so-called caliphate in 2014 and succeeded in capturing large parts of Syria and Iraq for years. The war in Syria changed after the arrival of ISIS, and more than 70 countries formed a US-led coalition to defeat it.

In 2019, the coalition finally drove ISIS from its last stronghold in Syria, but has the ISIS threat in Syria completely disappeared?

“It’s now more like a rebel group that’s carrying out ‘hit-and-run’ attacks, but it’s still very active in Syria, and its attacks have increased significantly this year,” says Mina al-Alami. She says a turning point for ISIS could come when it succeeds in releasing ISIS fighters and detained families from various camps controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Thousands of women and children are being held in detention camps alongside suspected ISIS fighters. Thousands of women and children are being held in detention camps alongside suspected ISIS fighters.

Amnesty International says that five years after the defeat of the so-called Islamic State, thousands of people are still being detained. An estimated 11,500 men, 14,500 women and 30,000 children are being held in at least 27 detention centers and two concentration camps.

“ISIS has its eyes on these camps,” says Mina al-Lami. “It is waiting for any crisis, any weak moment in security, to attack these camps and prisons and free its people from there.”

She adds that “there could be a major Turkish-led military operation in northern Syria, possibly against Kurdish forces, or a major US operation against Shiite militias in Syria.”