Iran’s Nuclear Countdown

In recent weeks, officials from Iran, the United States, and Israel have repeatedly claimed that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within 24 to 48 hours.

Amid the recent tensions in the Middle East, the world’s eyes are also focused on Iran’s nuclear program, and world powers are trying to assess how close Tehran is to building an atomic bomb.

Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has reached 60 percent, and technically, Iran is only one step away from using it to create nuclear weapons.

Following the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has disregarded its commitments to fixed limits on uranium enrichment, and its stockpile of enriched uranium continues to grow daily.

It should be noted that the JCPOA was an agreement between Iran, the United States, and other world powers that was signed in 2015. Under this agreement, sanctions on Iran were to be eased and Iran was to limit its nuclear program in return.

What Is ‘Nuclear Escape Time’?

The period between current preparations and the creation of nuclear weapons is called the ‘nuclear escape time.’ According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, a nuclear bomb can be made after 25 kilograms of enriched uranium are produced.

The transition from a peaceful to a military nuclear program is measured by ‘nuclear escape time.’

Many factors are monitored to measure ‘nuclear escape time’, such as the state of the uranium enrichment infrastructure, how much enriched uranium a country has in its stockpile, and the pace of uranium enrichment.

It is only by taking all these factors into account that one can assess how far a country is from building a nuclear bomb.

The period between current preparations and the creation of nuclear weapons is called the ‘nuclear escape time’.

How long will it take Iran to build a Nuclear bomb?

How long will it take for Iran’s nuclear program to be able to produce a nuclear weapon? There are many estimates, but Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Recent tensions in the Middle East and the potential for direct conflict between Iran and Israel have once again sparked speculation about Tehran’s nuclear program.

At the same time, some Iranian officials are calling for a change in the country’s defense doctrine. According to various estimates, Iran will be able to produce an atom in a very short time, but observers say that the nature of these estimates and comments may also be political.

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What Are Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities?

But Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Strategic Intelligence Institute in Washington, says that Iran’s claims about a nuclear cleanup time are being “exaggerated” and that it is a “disturbing” process. However, he also says that Iran is not far from building a nuclear bomb.

“Every researcher and expert in the US, UK and other Western countries is saying that Iran’s nuclear escape time is a week. It’s not 24 hours, it’s not a day. But even a week is a very short time,” Fitzpatrick told BBC Persian.

Senior officials in the United States and organizations monitoring security and nuclear situation issues also confirm that claims about the timing of Iran’s atomic bomb have been in the news for months.

Speaking at the Spain Security Forum in July, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Iran was now “just a week or two away” from developing a nuclear weapon after the failure of the nuclear deal with Iran. This was the shortest time ever reported by any US official.

The Institute for Science and International Security has been monitoring Iran’s nuclear program for the past two decades and on November 21 this year, it said in its report that Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent and can produce 25 kilograms of uranium in a week or less to make a nuclear weapon.

The organization has analyzed a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency and concluded that Iran’s current uranium and centrifuges are capable of providing the country with “materials necessary to make 10 nuclear weapons” in a month.

Mark Fitzpatrick says that what is more worrying is that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has reached 60 percent and ‘it has no normal use and will only be made into bombs.’

He says, “Iran has 60 percent enriched uranium and can increase it to 90 percent to make six nuclear bombs.” Experts say Iran faces technical problems in building any kind of atom

How much enriched Uranium does Iran have?

During Donald Trump’s first term as president, the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and adopted a policy of using “maximum pressure” against Iran.

Under this agreement, the level of enriched uranium for Iran was set at 67.3 percent and it was also stated that Iran could not increase its uranium stockpile beyond 300 kilograms.

But in the past few years, Iran has increased its stockpile of enriched uranium through the use of modern centrifuges.

It should be noted that some time ago, Iran announced that it would accelerate the process of enriching uranium ‘through modern machinery’. However, Iranian officials did not provide details on how they intend to accelerate the process.

What happens after Uranium enrichment?

Producing weapons-grade uranium is a critical step but insufficient on its own to create a nuclear bomb.

Mark Fitzpatrick explains that while ‘nuclear escape time’ estimates the period required to produce sufficient uranium, Iran would still need months to construct a functional weapon.

He added that “it takes a few months to install this weapon on a missile,” and therefore he estimates that it will take Iran about a year to build a usable nuclear weapon.

Uranium plants produce the material used for nuclear weapons in the form of hexafluoride. This material is then further enriched to make it suitable for use in bombs. This is a very complex process, requiring special machinery and specialized skills.

Recently, Iran announced that it would accelerate the process of enriching uranium ‘through modern machinery’.

However, experts say that Iran faces technical challenges in building any kind of atom. They also say that after years of research, Iran has developed an infrastructure through its ‘Emad program’ that could help the country build nuclear weapons.

The Institute of Science and International Security said in its report that “even after the end of the Emad program, Iran continues to face problems in producing a warhead that it can mount on its Shahab-3 ballistic missile.”

The institute said in a report that Iran could obtain nuclear weapons in two ways:

Emergency plan: Iran could develop a nuclear bomb weapon in less than six months. This bomb would not be capable of being used by a large rocket but could be used for testing.

Reconstruction of the Uranium Production Complex: This method will be similar to the ‘Imad Program’ and will allow the production of a warhead that can be mounted on a missile in about two years.

What further steps will Iran have to take to build Nuclear weapons?

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote in a research report on November 25 that it could take Iran a few months to a year to build a nuclear weapon after enriching uranium.

According to this report, this work is done in three phases.

Designing and assembling the components: Iran would first have to create an explosive device using various functional components that would be capable of absorbing uranium and would be equipped with a neutron initiator that could activate the weapon.

Cold test: After this process, Iran will have to conduct a cold test, which will use regular uranium instead of enriched uranium. The purpose of this test is to test the deionization of the bomb.

Mounting the warhead on a missile: Developing a weapon that can be mounted on a missile would also be a major challenge for Iran.

Recent tensions in the Middle East and the potential for direct conflict between Iran and Israel have led to renewed speculation about Tehran’s nuclear program.

What other difficulties does Iran face in building an Atomic bomb?

There are still many obstacles to Iran’s ability to build an atomic bomb. Mark Fitzpatrick says that once it has all the necessary materials, it will be very difficult for Iran to hide the fact that it is building a bomb with this material.

He says, “Iran will not be able to hide the fact that it is enriching uranium to 90 percent. Israel has stated it will not permit Iran to build a nuclear bomb, and the United States has echoed this stance.”

Fitzpatrick says that before Iran can install its weapon on a missile, “it (Iran) will certainly be the target of a military attack.”

Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program a threat to its national security. It has previously attacked nuclear facilities in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007.

On November 18 of this year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Israel had targeted a “specific part” of Iran’s nuclear program in its attack.