US concerns about Pakistan’s ballistic missile program are growing, and for the first time, a senior US administration official has officially claimed that Pakistan has developed ‘effective missile technology’ that would enable it to target the United States.
Speaking at an event hosted by the American think tank Carnegie Endowment, US President Joe Biden’s deputy national security adviser John Finer said that Pakistan has developed long-range missile systems and other weapons that “give it the ability to conduct experiments (with) large rocket motors.”
“If this trend keeps going, Pakistan might gain the capability to strike targets beyond South Asia, even reaching the United States, which brings up serious concerns about Pakistan’s goals,” he says.
The statement by the US deputy national security adviser comes two days after the Biden administration imposed sanctions on four entities allegedly linked to Pakistan’s nuclear-armed long-range ballistic missile program, including the National Development Complex (NDC), the government agency overseeing the missile program.
Referring to the threats posed to the United States, John Finer said, “The list of countries that possess nuclear weapons and have the ability to directly target the United States is small, and those are America’s adversaries: Russia, North Korea, and China.”
He added, “It would be difficult for us not to view Pakistan’s actions as a threat to the United States. Senior leaders in our administration, including myself, have expressed these concerns to senior Pakistani officials on numerous occasions.”
The deputy national security adviser added that Pakistan has been a long-time partner of the United States and that they are also eager to work with Pakistan further on shared interests. However, he said, “Then the question also arises for us as to why Pakistan is acquiring a capability that could be used against us.”
He added, “Unfortunately, we feel that Pakistan has failed to take our concerns and those of the international community seriously.” Following the statement by President Joe Biden’s deputy national security adviser John Finer, the BBC spoke to experts to try to find out why the US is concerned that Pakistan is developing missiles that can hit targets in the US. What is the reason for this concern at this time and can Pakistan really build missiles that can reach the US?
Apart from this, in this article we have also tried to find out what is Pakistan’s missile program that is being targeted by recent US sanctions? Which missiles are included in it and what are the concerns of the US about them? In this article, we have also tried to understand how US sanctions can affect Pakistan’s missile program.
US Deputy National Security Advisor John Finer says that in recent times, Pakistan has developed such an effective missile technology that it will be able to target the United States.
According to Syed Muhammad Ali, an Islamabad-based defense expert, the recent accusations made by US officials against Pakistan are against technical facts.
According to him, the first reason is technical, the second is strategic, and the third is economic or political.
Why Is This Not Technically Possible?
Syed Muhammad Ali claims that “the aim of innovating Pakistan’s ballistic missiles is not to target any distant country other than India, but to counter or defeat India’s rapidly developing missile defense system.” This means that no matter how advanced a defense system the enemy builds, your ballistic or cruise missile should be capable of defeating it, regardless of range.
He gives the example of Israel’s five-layer defense system , which includes everything from Arrow and Iron Dome to David’s Sling, interceptors and anti-aircraft guns. “If a missile is capable of emerging from five layers and hitting its target and destroying it, it must be equipped with MIRVs, as is the Pakistani missile Ababeel.”
According to Syed Muhammad Ali, MIRVs mean a missile that can carry multiple warheads simultaneously that are independently programmed and the number of these warheads can be from three to eight and even more, and in the case of Russia, up to 12. These missiles go towards their respective targets independently and each one has a different path of travel towards the target.
The purpose of this is that when you launch it with a missile and when its re-entry vehicle re-enters the atmosphere, it (the re-entry vehicle) spreads out in different directions and hits its respective target. He gives an example of this with the formation of fighter jets, which varies before reaching the target, upon arrival, during the attack, and after.
Upon reaching a target, fighter jets spread out to avoid surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft guns in such a way that they can all hit the target from different directions without being hit by enemy fire. According to Syed Muhammad Ali, the United States has such a missile, the Minuteman III, and India has recently started innovating in this technology.
Syed Muhammad Ali claims that “if Pakistan is improving this, its aim is not to target any country other than India, but to thwart any innovation in India’s system (whether it is related to the S-400 or something else) and thus thwart their ability to reach their target.”
He says, “Pakistan is not working on any technology that India does not already have, and India is not only building ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles) but has also tested them, which have a range of more than 5,000 kilometers, which means that their target is not Pakistan or China, while on the other hand, Pakistan has not tested any missile of this range to date.” They say that this accusation against Pakistan is against technical facts.
In this regard, Dr. Mansoor Ahmed, a lecturer in Strategic and Defense Studies at the Australian National University in Canberra, says, “Until a system (missile) is tested at a range, it cannot be said that this country has acquired this capability, and Pakistan has not yet tested any missile whose range is beyond India.”
After inducting two nuclear submarines into its fleet, India has joined the ranks of countries that have the capability to launch a nuclear attack on any country in the world, including the United States. Syed Muhammad Ali says that India is also building SSBNs (Nuclear Powered Ballistic Missile Submarines) or submarines capable of firing ballistic missiles.
He says, “In the discussion of missiles, surface-to-surface missiles are given great importance, but countries with capabilities under the sea or nuclear submarines are ignored, which do not have a range cycle because these missiles can be launched from a submarine near any country.” An example of this is India’s ‘Arihant’ and ‘Arigath’ nuclear submarines, which are now part of the Indian Navy.
It should be remembered that the United States, Great Britain, France, Russia, and China also have nuclear-armed submarines, meaning that these five countries have the capability to launch a nuclear attack on any country in the world. Syed Muhammad Ali says that after adding two nuclear submarines to its fleet, India has also acquired this capability, meaning it has joined the ranks of countries that have the capability to launch a nuclear attack on any country in the world, including the United States.
He says that the discussion only on surface-to-surface missiles ignores very important strategic realities. Syed Muhammad Ali believes that “if Pakistan is thinking of targeting the US, it is economically and politically impossible because Pakistan’s largest export market (about six billion dollars) is the US and a large number of Pakistanis living there send money to the country.
In addition, Pakistan considers maintaining good relations with the US to solve its economic problems (IMF) as an important goal of its foreign policy as well as national security.
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What Is the Cause of America’s Concern Now?
Dr. Mansoor Ahmed says, “It is possible that Pakistan (NDC) is developing a more advanced version of the Ababeel missile system that can defeat any Indian ballistic missile defense shield and carry a heavy payload of multiple warheads.”
However, he says, “This will require more powerful rockets and US officials are accusing NDC of developing the same, but it cannot convert the specific missile system designed for India into an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) and this would require a completely new missile system.”
Regarding the timing, both Syed Muhammad Ali and Dr. Mansoor blame the Biden administration, claiming that it is heavily influenced by India. Syed Muhammad Ali says that this is “a result of India’s growing influence in US policy-making circles and India is now trying to use America’s shoulder and pressure to reduce Pakistan’s defense capabilities.”
He says, “Criticism and expressing doubts about Pakistan’s defense capabilities is evidence that the Indian lobby in Washington wants to take advantage of Biden’s weakness in his final days.” Syed Muhammad Ali believes that it is not possible for Pakistan to acquire the capability to attack the United States in the future, “because Pakistan’s missile and atomic program is specific to India and Pakistan is not involved in any kind of arms race.”
Pakistan’s Missile Program and US Sanctions
The series of US sanctions on entities and suppliers related to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program is not coming to an end, and in 2024, sanctions were imposed on four more entities for the third time for supporting the production of ballistic missiles.
A statement issued by the US State Department said that these sanctions are being imposed on three firms, including the National Development Complex (NDC), which are involved in the production and delivery of equipment for weapons of mass destruction.
The four entities on which sanctions have been imposed include National Development Complex (NDC), Akhtar & Sons Private Limited, Philatelics International and Rockside Enterprises. The statement says that Islamabad’s National Development Complex (NDC) has obtained equipment to develop Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missiles, including specialized vehicle chassis for missile launch support and testing.
The US alleges that NDC is involved in the production of other Pakistani ballistic missiles, including the Shaheen series missiles. According to the statement, Karachi-based Akhtar & Sons Private Limited has supplied various equipment for NDC for Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program. In addition, Karachi-based Philatelic International is accused of facilitating the procurement of missile-making equipment for the NDC and other entities to support the ballistic missile program.
It should be recalled that earlier in September this year, the United States imposed sanctions on a Chinese research institute and several companies that it claimed were involved in providing equipment and technology for Pakistan’s ballistic missile program. In addition, similar sanctions were imposed on three Chinese and one Belarusian companies in April of the same year, and on three more Chinese companies in October 2023 for allegedly providing parts and equipment for Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.
In December 2021, the US administration imposed sanctions on 13 Pakistani companies for allegedly providing assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs.
However, Pakistan has described the US move as “disappointing” and said that the recent US sanctions are aimed at increasing the military imbalance in the region.
Pakistan’s Response
Pakistan’s Foreign Office has described the US move as unfortunate and biased. A statement issued by the Foreign Office said that Pakistan’s strategic capabilities are aimed at defending the country’s sovereignty and maintaining peace in South Asia. The statement said that the recent US sanctions are aimed at increasing military non-cooperation in the region, which will undermine peace and security efforts.
The Foreign Office says such restrictions on private businesses are disappointing. The Foreign Office said that despite past claims of non-proliferation, the licensing requirement for other countries to acquire advanced military technology was abolished, and such double standards and discriminatory treatment would not only undermine the goal of non-proliferation but also risk harming regional and global peace and security.
“The aim of Pakistan’s modernization of ballistic missiles is not to target any distant country other than India, but to counter or defeat India’s rapidly developing missile defense system.”
What Does Pakistan’s Missile Program Look Like Under U.S. Sanctions?
Pakistan’s missile program, which was mentioned in the US State Department’s September 2024 statement, includes the medium-range ballistic missiles Shaheen III (range 2750 km) and Ababeel (range 2200 km), which are called Multiple Reentry Vehicles or MRVs. Experts believe that these are the most capable missile systems in Pakistan’s missile arsenal.
According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) of Pakistan, after first testing the Ababeel missile in 2017, Pakistan also tested a new variant of the medium-range surface-to-surface Ababeel missile on October 18, 2023, after which it was displayed for the first time on the occasion of the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23 this year.
According to Dr. Mansoor Ahmed, a lecturer in strategic and defense studies at the National University of Canberra, this is the first missile in South Asia that is capable of carrying multiple warheads or nuclear weapons up to a distance of 2,200 kilometers and can hit various targets.
According to Professor Dr. Mansoor Ahmed, defense experts estimate that the Ababeel missile is capable of carrying three or more nuclear warheads or nuclear weapons. According to him, it is an MRV missile system designed to defeat and neutralize the enemy’s ballistic missile defense shield. Each warhead in the Ababeel missile can hit multiple targets.
However, according to Dr. Mansoor, the important point is that Ababeel also has the capability of a first or second strike against high-value targets protected by a Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) shield. The Ababeel missile was displayed for the first time on the occasion of the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23 this year. Defense experts estimate that the Ababeel missile is capable of carrying three or more nuclear warheads or nuclear weapons.
Syed Muhammad Ali, an Islamabad-based defense expert, says that the special feature of MRV missile technology is that if there is a missile defense shield or ballistic missile system in the opposite direction against them when they approach the target, they can confuse them. Giving an example of this, he says, “Just like a fast bowler swings the ball, in which he relies on his speed, swing and seam to break the batsman’s defense.”
Syed Muhammad Ali explains that “MIRV missiles have multiple warheads that are independently programmed and move independently towards their respective targets, and each has a different flight path.” According to Dr. Mansoor, “India has been working on a ballistic missile system for more than a decade and they not only keep experimenting with it but also talk about it publicly.”
India recently tested its first MRV, the Agni-V, with multiple warheads. It is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of at least 5,000-8,000 km, compared to the Ababeel’s range of just 2,200 km, making it the shortest-range MRV in the world.
Dr. Mansoor says that there are unconfirmed reports that India’s ‘Agni P’ is also an MRV with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers. At the time of the Shaheen III test, Lieutenant General (retd) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai had said in a statement, “This missile has been designed solely to counter India so that India cannot find any place to hide.”
What is Pakistan’s Shaheen III Missile?
Dr. Mansoor says, “Ababeel is designed solely to counter India, but the missile that the United States has been concerned about since 2021 is the Shaheen-III missile, which has a range of 2,740 kilometers.” In fact, Ababeel is the next generation of the Shaheen III missile.
Dr. Mansoor says that at the time of the Shaheen III test, Lt. Gen. (retd.) Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, Advisor to the National Command Authority, had said in a statement that this missile has been designed solely to counter India and its purpose is to target important strategic targets in India (especially the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and places in the east where their nuclear submarine bases are being built).
He further emphasized that the purpose is so that India does not find any place to hide and there is no misunderstanding that there are places in India where they can hide their systems for a counter or first strike and Pakistan cannot target these places.
According to Dr. Mansoor, Indian officials, including Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, have made statements on several occasions indicating that ‘India has acquired capabilities that enable it to launch a preemptive strike against Pakistan.’ He gives the example of the supersonic Brahmos missile, which is a nuclear weapon along with a conventional one, and in addition, India is developing many systems that can be launched from land, air, and sea for a first strike.
It may be recalled that in 2022, a Brahmos missile fell in Pakistan, about which the Indian Ministry of Defense said that the Brahmos missile that fell in Pakistani territory was accidentally fired from India.
Dr. Mansoor says, “India can use Brahmos for a conventional counter-force (first) strike against Pakistani strategic forces and command and control and then India can claim that we have just carried out a conventional attack, but such a conventional strike would be considered a first nuclear attack by Pakistan.”
He believes that ‘These are all situations in which Pakistan has to be prepared to prevent any attack and this is possible only if Pakistan continues to demonstrate its capabilities to the enemy. And for this purpose, Pakistan has built and displayed nuclear warheads like Shaheen III and Ababeel.’
India recently tested the MRV system of Agni V. It is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of at least 5000-8000 km.
What is the US Concerned About?
Now let’s talk about what concerns the United States has about these missiles. The US State Department statement alleged that “RIAMB worked with Pakistan to test and procure equipment for diameter rocket motors for the Shaheen III and Ababeel missile systems and ‘potentially larger systems.'”
Regarding ‘possibly even larger systems’, Dr. Mansoor says that this could mean that work is underway on the next generation of the same missile. The first test of Ababeel took place in January 2017, followed by the second test of Ababeel six years later in October 2023. And during these six years, work has been continuously underway on this technology at NDC.
He says, “Shaheen III was already operational, but after the second test of Ababeel when it was displayed in the parade in March, Shaheen III and Ababeel came into greater focus because this display meant that Pakistan had reached the stage where research and development on it had been completed and Ababeel was now operational.” This is the real cause of American concern,” says Dr. Mansoor.
“The US fears that Pakistan is working on a more capable version of it.”According to him, “Another reason for American concern is that the Ababeel are three-stage missile systems and the mobile launcher system is a very important capability because, in the event of any surprise attack, these systems can not only be easily camouflaged in different locations but can also be easily transported to a place where the enemy cannot detect them.
“Experts believe that any three-stage missile system can become the basis for a longer-range system.”The six-year gap between the first and second tests of Ababeel is proof that Pakistan is now working on this technology domestically,” says Dr. Mansoor. “If they were getting all the technology from China, why would they have waited six years?”
However, they believe that there has certainly been some new development in this system that has increased American concern that Pakistan may be acquiring more capabilities and that in the future, improved versions of these nuclear-capable missiles could carry larger warheads, and Ababeel may gain the ability to carry more than three warheads. It should be noted that sanctions were imposed on mobile launchers of these systems in April.
The fact sheet issued by the US stated that the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant, based in Belarus, had provided Pakistan with a special vehicle chassis for its ballistic missile program.
Fear of the Space Program?
Powerful rocket motors are also mentioned in the US sanctions. Dr. Mansoor says that in addition to the long range of Ababeel, the US is also concerned about Pakistan’s space program. It may be recalled that in the April fact sheet, China’s Granpact Company Limited was accused of being involved in providing equipment to Pakistan’s space research organization, Suparco, for testing rocket motors.
It was further alleged that the same company had been supplying parts to Pakistan for testing large rocket motors. Dr. Mansoor says that “the US is concerned that Pakistan will not build its indigenous space launch vehicle,” and that Pakistan already has a vision for a 2047 space program. Dr. Mansoor says that acquiring capabilities in the space program is very important for nuclear deterrence, which enables you to accurately target targets and conduct defensive surveillance, etc.
The United States fears that Pakistan could launch its space vehicle for military and civilian purposes, which would give it the ability to fire intercontinental ballistic missiles. Both Pakistan and China have not signed the MTCR, but even without it, both China and Pakistan pass it.
How Could These Sanctions Affect Pakistan’s Missile Program?
US sanctions are nothing new; they began in the 1970s.Dr. Mansoor says that the recent sanctions are nothing new but have been going on since the 1970s when Pakistan launched its missile program in response to India’s missile program (for which it was receiving support from Russia and many other sources) and has always had close relations with China.
He says the sanctions imposed on Chinese and Pakistani companies and individuals will not affect either country. Regarding the sanctions on the Pakistani agency National Development Complex (NDC), he says that the agency does not depend on the West for missile technologies, so it will not affect it either. He gives the example of North Korea, which has had no effect despite all the sanctions imposed.
In this regard, defense and missile analyst Syed Muhammad Ali says, “Pakistan’s missile program is completely indigenous, it depends on local resources and expertise, and it will not be affected by US sanctions.”They believe that such actions are regrettable and, most importantly, they are divorced from regional strategic realities such as the country’s safety and security and the growing intercontinental range of Indian missiles, which pose growing threats to regional and global peace, security, and stability.
India: The Most Important Member of the Quad for the US
The US State Department statement also mentions the MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime), a group of countries that control the export of missile technology. In this regard, Dr. Mansoor says that neither Pakistan nor China has signed the MTCR, but even without it, both China and Pakistan passed it and no system has been exported that has a range of more than 300 kilometers, but instead of praising this move, it is said that Pakistan and China are cooperating.
He says that if the problem lies with the cooperation of the two countries, then on the other hand, India’s entire missile program is built with the cooperation and assistance of Russia. An example of this is India’s BrahMos missile. When this technology was initially taken from Russia, its range was 290 kilometers, but now India has taken it to 800 kilometers and work is also being done on its hypersonic version, but MTCR is not discussed here.
It should be remembered that the MTCR prohibits the export of missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers and warheads weighing more than 500 kilograms are also not allowed. Dr. Mansoor also gives the example of India’s Agni V, which has a range of 5,000-8,000 kilometers and is capable of carrying three to five, and perhaps even more, warheads. India is also developing versions of it for installation on nuclear submarines.
India’s supersonic BrahMos missile is a conventional as well as a nuclear weapon, and in addition to this, India is developing many systems that can be launched from land, air, and sea for first strike. Dr. Mansoor explains that Pakistan does not have any nuclear submarines, “Pakistan’s restraint is not appreciated,” but it should be remembered that Pakistan’s efforts are to maintain strategic stability in South Asia.
There should be no problem with the technologies developed in response to India, but Dr. Mansoor says that the fact is that India is the most important member of the Quad for the United States. In addition, India’s soft power and economic power are much greater than Pakistan’s, and Indians dominate every think tank in Western countries, which has a great influence on shaping public opinion of the people and governments.
It should be remembered that the Quad is a group of four countries, which includes India, Australia, Japan, and the United States. Dr. Mansoor says that the United States has geostrategic interests in various international locations, such as Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East, and the situation in Taiwan, China, etc., and for this reason, it has made various promises to these countries in different places and has formed the Quad to reduce China’s influence in the South Asian region.
Tensions with China could also be a reason for the ban on Pakistan’s missile program. In this regard, Syed Muhammad Ali says that the focus of US sanctions is primarily on Chinese companies rather than Pakistan, to force Beijing to exert economic pressure on it.